🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."