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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.